Argonne National Laboratory

TRUCK Heavy Vehicle Market Penetration Model

The TRUCK heavy vehicle market penetration model was developed by TA Engineering, Inc., (TAE) personnel and other consultants providing analytical support for the US DOE’s advanced transportation technology program activities—starting in the early 1990s. In addition to updates carried out periodically in response to software enhancements, a significant revision was performed for use in the 2012 National Petroleum Council’s Future Transportation Fuels Study (FTF). The most significant part of this upgrade was the update of the model relating to natural gas technology for medium- and heavy-duty trucks.

The most recent version (v5.0) was developed by TAE under contract to Argonne National Laboratory. This model estimates future market penetration of advanced or alternative vehicle technologies based on fuel savings and vehicle cost; emphasizing the incremental cost of the energy efficiency technology. The model calculates market shares separately within three distinct markets based on size class and truck configuration. Calculations are made at annual time steps from the present through 2050. The model provides estimates of market share weighted by vehicle-miles-traveled and does not estimate total sales nor does it track in‐use stock. However, the TRUCK 5.0 outputs are compatible with Argonne National Laboratory's VISION model, which projects the in‐use stock of vehicles by applying historical scrappage rates and estimates of future sales.

The TRUCK model is one component of the Heavy Truck Energy Modeling System (HTEMS), HTEMS was developed for the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE),Vehicle Technologies Office. HTEMS consists of a set of linked Excel workbooks that are used to calculate the annual energy consumption of heavy trucks in weight classes 3 through 8 with projections from the current year up through the year 2050. The primary purpose of the modeling system is to estimate energy, environmental, and economic benefits of VTP heavy vehicle program elements using a market-based approach. This analysis is performed annually in support of Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA) reporting requirements. HTEMS and its individual components also have been used to analyze the impact of various policy and technology scenarios.

The TRUCK model consists of one workbook for each vehicle weight class. Class 3‐6 trucks are not sub‐divided but are instead treated as a single category. Each workbook contains separate input and calculation worksheets for each market sub‐segment. All truck sub‐segments within a weight class are processed in one workbook and the model is exercised from a single "Run Model" worksheet.

Please refer to the TRUCK Model documentation for additional information.