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Conference | Energy and Global Security

Complex Decision Making in High-Consequence Environments

CCS19 Satellite Session

During the Conference on Complex Systems 2019 (CCS19) to be held at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, Argonne and University of Chicago Computational Social Scientist Ignacio J. Martinez-Moyano, along with Alexander Kalloniatis (Defence Science & Technology Group /Australian Government), will host a special satellite session, Complex decision making in high-consequence environments: Exploring the dynamic interplay of social, behavioral, and technical considerations leading to conflict, crime, security, and resilience.” This session is a follow-on to the 2016, 2017, and 2018 CCS satellite sessions on security and will expand its focus to include processes that lead to conflict, crime, security, and resilience.

Decision-making processes are at the core of how organizations and individuals deal with the causes and consequences of high-impact events. Often in complex systems, because of their inherent unpredictability and because of multiple non-linear effects and time delays in how systems respond, decisions made to address current problems or to prevent future problems are the reason why problems persist over time or emerge in the future.

This session will focus on complex decision making in high-consequence environments. In particular, we intend to explore the dynamic interplay of social, behavioral, and technical considerations leading to conflict, crime, security, and resilience.

Examples of topics that will be addressed are modeling complex systems and their decision-making structures; analysis of escalation and de-escalation of conflict and violence and increases and decreases in criminal activity and organizations; design of decision-making processes to increase security and resilience; adversarial decision making and behavior; mechanisms to reduce ambiguity into uncertainty; and structural considerations needed for stability and instability in complex systems.

The intent of this satellite session is to provide a space in which we will share knowledge and insights about how complex decision making in high-consequence environments can contribute to making the world a more resilient and safer place! We aim to stimulate interactions between practitioners and complexity scientists in this increasingly challenging area.

Preliminary Program

Time Activity/Authors
(presenter in bold)
Title
8:00-9:00 Registration  
9:00-10:30 Session 1A  
9:00-9:30 Ignacio Martinez-Moyano Complex Decision Making in High-consequence Environments
9:30-10:00 Jane Holloway, Thitima Pitinanondha, and Gabriele Bammer Managing Unknowns in Defence Strategic Decision Making
10:00-10:30 Chaitanya Kaligotla and Ignacio Martinez-Moyano Ambiguity Reduction into Uncertainty and Risk in Decision Making
10:30-11:00 Coffee Break  
11:00-13:00 Session 1B  
11:00-11:30 A. Filinkov, P. Arbon, R. Nunes-Vaz, S. Troath, and L. Falzon Complex Systems Design for Social/National Resilience to Disruptive Events
11:30-12:00 Sergiy Shelyag, Mathew Zuparic, Maia Angelova, Ye Zhu, and Alexander Kalloniatis Modelling the complexity of multi-population conflict: the generalised Blue-Green-Red’ Lanchester model
12:00-12:30 Alexander Kalloniatis and Mathew Zuparic Representing Competitive and Cooperative Collective Decision-Making in Conflict Environments
12:30-13:00 Matthias Spitzmuller and Guihyun Park Towards a Theory of Free Energy in Teams
13:00-14:00 Lunch Break  
14:00-16:00 Session 1C  
14:00-16:00 Facilitated Workshop The Road Ahead: What do we need to know to improve decision-making in high consequence environments

Goal: Provide an overview of current research and applications on complex decision making in high-consequence environments; explore the dynamic interplay of social, behavioral, and technical considerations leading to conflict, crime, security, and resilience; and identify new research challenges and opportunities in this area.

Place: The Arc - Learning Hub North (LHN), Nanyang Technological University, 63 Nanyang Drive, Singapore 636922

Contact: Ignacio J Martinez-Moyano, Ph.D. imartinez@​anl.​gov

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