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Jessica Brooke Trail

Senior Statistician


Jessica Trail is a Senior Statistician in the Social, Behavioral, and Decision Sciences Group at the U.S. Department of Energy’s Argonne National Laboratory. She has a Ph.D. in statistics from The Pennsylvania State University, as well as degrees in statistics, mathematics and psychology from Miami University. She has an appointment at the University of Chicago Consortium for Advanced Science and Engineering. Jessica’s research interests include analyzing data to assess security, resilience, and potential vulnerabilities of the nation’s critical infrastructure; examining the dynamics of infectious disease outbreaks; modeling the propagation of genetic modifications throughout a population; evaluating the effects of control measures to inform the design of optimized interventions; and using machine learning methods to improve threat identification.


Ph.D. Statistics, The Pennsylvania State University
M.S. Statistics, Miami University
B.A. Mathematics, Miami University
B.A. Psychology, Miami University

Select Publications:

Factorial experiments: efficient tools for evaluation of intervention components
LM Collins, JJ Dziak, KC Kugler, JB Trail
American journal of preventive medicine 47 (4), 498-504 (2014)

Understanding real-world implementation quality and active ingredients” of PBIS
LE Molloy, JE Moore, J Trail, JJ Van Epps, S Hopfer
Prevention science 14 (6), 593-605 (2013)

Evaluating individual intervention components: making decisions based on the results of a factorial screening experiment
LM Collins, JB Trail, KC Kugler, TB Baker, ME Piper, RJ Mermelstein
Translational behavioral medicine 4 (3), 238-251 (2013)

Effect coding versus dummy coding in analysis of data from factorial experiments
KC Kugler, JB Trail, JJ Dziak, LM Collins
University Park, PA: The Methodology Center, Pennsylvania State University (2012)

Functional data analysis for dynamical system identification of behavioral processes.
JB Trail, LM Collins, DE Rivera, R Li, ME Piper, TB Baker
Psychological methods 19 (2), 175 (2014)

Coding and interpretation of effects in analysis of data from a factorial experiment
KC Kugler, JJ Dziak, J Trail
Optimization of Behavioral, Biobehavioral, and Biomedical Interventions, 175-205 (2018)

A novel dynamical systems approach to statistical mediation analysis
DE Rivera, K Timms, JB Trail, JE Navarro-Barrientos, ME Piper, …
19th annual meeting of the Society for Prevention Research, Washington, DC (2011